Report
Michael Howell
EUR 421.35 For Business Accounts Only

Global View Why This Liquidity Boost Differs Markedly From 2008-09 and GFC#1 - June 2020

Why This Liquidity Boost Differs Markedly From 2008-09 and GFC#1

The colossal scale of policy support through the lock-downs has helped to boost asset prices. We argue in this report that the response to the 2020 COVID GFC#2 is radically different to their earlier response to the 2008-09 GFC#1. Not only is the supply of ‘safe’ assets, such as Treasuries and Central Bank liquidity, many times greater, but the combined interaction of monetary and fiscal policy is likely to push funds into the real economy. We conclude that the ratio between asset values and liquidity is historically low, and that inflation risks in 2021 are underestimated. Markets are being moved by money, not economic fundamentals.
Provider
CrossBorder Capital
CrossBorder Capital

​​CrossBorder Capital Ltd (CrossBorder) is a London based, FCA registered, independent investment firm founded in 1996. It is owned by its partners and has no affiliations with banks, stockbrokers or other financial institutions.

CrossBorder's core competence is the measurement and analysis of global liquidity flows. Liquidity is a source of funds, in contrast to money which is a use of funds. It is defined as the flow of cash plus credit, or more explicitly as savings plus the change in base money plus the change in bank credit. Liquidity is therefore a more comprehensive measurement of fund flows than the monetary aggregates used traditionally. Liquidity research is applied to determining the outlook for a range of asset classes including equities, fixed income, currencies and hedge fund styles over varying time horizons.

Central to this analysis is the monthly collection and analysis of balance sheet data from over seventy of the world's central banks to quantify the level and direction of liquidity in each country. This data is publicly available, aggregate as opposed to sample, and rarely significantly revised. It is also little used by investors, and CrossBorder's prime utility is bringing this set of data to investors in a timely and user-friendly way.

CrossBorder's insights rest on two philosophical assertions: first, there is a regular cycle of liquidity, and asset class price movements tend to move sequentially over the cycle. By measuring where we are on it, we can significantly reduce 'fat tail' outcomes in our predictions for asset price movements. Secondly, weightings of asset classes held by investors in aggregate tend to revert to the long term mean. By measuring the variance from this mean, we can understand whether a particular trade is 'crowded' or the reverse.

CrossBorder offers these insights both as the Liquidity Research research service, and in the form of systematically allocated in-house funds. Clients of the Liquidity Research service include leading banks, fund managers (both traditional and hedge) and insurance companies located worldwide. CrossBorder additionally manages and advises on tactical asset allocation products for third parties.

Analysts
Michael Howell

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