2016: are investors ready for a change in their environment?
​For the first time since 2013, money-market Futures are in a situation where they could reverse their medium term trends. No signal has yet been triggered. It will be January's battle. For the time being, market implied rates show that investors do not expect the Fed to implement the four 25 bps lifts that have been mentioned by some. According to Bloomberg's calculations, the market is pricing Fed Funds at 0.86% in a year from now. This means the market expects two 25 bps lifts only. According to our 2016 scenario, the possibility that market expectations will change early in 2016 is very high. Investors have grown accustomed to falling Oil prices and continuous lenient monetary policies. Are you ready for a change in this environment?
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