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2024 revenues in line and gross margin a touch below our estimate, EBITDA-margin of 11-12% below guidance of ca 13% (DP: 13.6%)Changes capital allocation, no dividend over 2024, which we consider positiveWe will modestly cut out 2024 and 2025 estimates
We upgrade ForFarmers to from Hold to Buy, for the following reasons:Management successfully turns around the company. Under the helm of new management ForFarmers has been delivering on its strategy in the past few years, resulting in improving key positions through selective M&A with a focus on growth metrics such as free cash flow generation and EBITDA. It also has strengthened its market segments like poultry, horse and organic feed. Team agrar & HaBeMa boosting EBITDA by 25-30%. In 2024, For...
Luxempart has a ~15% IRR over the last 30 years, which is a very impressive track record for any investment company in EuropeAfter the Nexus AG tender, Luxempart's war chest would still be more than EUR 300m (almost 10% of its portfolio) positioning it well for any investment opportunityAny event that would improve the liquidity of the stock would serve as a significant catalyst in our view to narrow its discountWe estimate the current NAV to be EUR 113.9 p/s, implying a discount of 38%. TP...
Q4 sales marginally missed our expectations, partially due to lower than expected tobacco sales. Thanks to extra efforts, underlying sales trends are improving although market condition remain subdued. Based on the Q4-24 trading update we do not expect material changes to our estimates. We maintain our Hold rating and keep our TP of EUR 14 unchanged.
