Report
Mattias Holmberg
EUR 466.27 For Business Accounts Only

Decoding Alpha

Our analysis of underlying total shareholder return (TSR) drivers for Swedish Industrial companies reveals that high returns are not synonymous with high valuations. Investors tend to overpay for ‘growth’, while cash returns such as dividends and buybacks are typically deeply discounted. We believe Autoliv, Alfa Laval and Hexagon offer the most long-term TSR potential (13–14% annualised), with SKF and Trelleborg at the other end of the spectrum (8–9%), while also concluding that several stocks look mis-priced based on their TSR potential.
Underlyings
ABB Ltd.

ABB specializes in power and automation technologies. Co. provides a broad range of products, systems, solutions and services that are designed to boost industrial productivity, increase power grid reliability, and enhance energy efficiency. Co.'s automation businesses serve a full range of industries with process optimization, control, measurement and protection applications. Co.'s power businesses focus on power transmission, distribution and power-plant automation, and support electric, gas and water utilities, as well as industrial and commercial customers.

Alfa Laval AB

Alfa-Laval AB is a supplier of products and solutions in the technologies of heat transfer, separation and fluid handling. Co.'s equipment is used to heat, cool, separate and transport products in industries that produce food, beverages, fuel, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, starch, sugar and ethanol. They are also used aboard vessels, in power plants, in the engineering industry, for treating sludge and wastewater, for heating and cooling, and others. Co.'s products include: air heat exchangers, plate heat exchangers, shell-and-tube heat exchangers, thermal fluid systems, boilers, decanters, belt filter presses, high-speed separators, membrane filtration, pumps and valves, and tank equipment.

ASSA ABLOY AB Class B

ASSA ABLOY provides a range of door opening solutions. Co. is organized into five divisions. Europe, Middle East and Africa division, Americas (North and South America) division and Asia Pacific (Asia, Australia and New Zealand) division manufacture and sell mechanical and electromechanical locks, security doors and hardware in their respective geographical markets. Global Technologies division operates worldwide in the product areas of access control systems, secure card issuance, identification technology and hotel locks. Entrance Systems division is a global supplier of entrance automation products and service.

Atlas Copco AB Class A

Atlas Copco provides industrial productivity products and services. Co.'s operations are divided into four business areas: Compressor Technique (provides compressors, vacuum solutions, gas and process compressors and expanders, air and gas treatment equipment and air management systems), Industrial Technique (provides power tools, assembly systems, quality assurance products, software and service through a global network), Mining and Rock Excavation Technique (provides equipment for drilling and rock excavation), and Construction Technique (provides construction and demolition tools, portable compressors, pumps and generators, lighting towers, and compaction and paving equipment).

Autoliv Inc.

BEIJER REF AB

HEXAGON AB

HEXPOL AB Class B

Hexpol is organized in two business areas: HEXPOL Compounding and HEXPOL Engineered Products. HEXPOL Compounding is engaged as a supplier in the development and manufacture of polymer compounds. HEXPOL Compounding focuses primarily on two key segments of the polymer market: rubber compounding and thermoplastic elastomer compounding. HEXPOL Engineered Products is engaged as a supplier of products such as gaskets for plate heat exchangers and wheels for the forklift industry. The business area also provides rubber profiles, mainly for the construction and engineering industries.

NIBE INDUSTRIER AB

Sandvik AB

Sandvik is organized into five business areas: Sandvik Mining, Sandvik Machining Solutions, Sandvik Materials Technology, Sandvik Construction and Sandvik Venture. Sandvik Mining specializes in equipment, tools and service for the mining industry. Sandvik Machining Solutions focuses on tools and tooling systems for metal cutting. Sandvik Materials Technology specializes in products made from stainless steel grades and special alloys. Sandvik Construction specializes in equipment, tools and service for the breaking, drilling and crushing niches. Sandvik Venture generates value by promoting growth of small and medium-sized businesses of particular interest to the Sandvik Group.

SKF AB Class B

AB SKF is the parent company of the SKF Group, which supplies products, solutions and services within rolling bearings, seals, mechatronics, services and lubrication systems. Services include technical support, maintenance services, condition monitoring, asset optimization, engineering consultancy and training. Co.'s business areas are: SKF Industrial Market - Strategic Industries, which includes bearings and bearing accessories and lubrication systems; SKF Industrial Market - Regional Sales and Service, which develops SKF Solution Factory facilities providing engineering capability; and SKF Automotive, which develops and manufactures bearings, seals and related products and services.

Trelleborg AB Class B

Trelleborg AB provides engineered polymer solutions. Co. has five business areas: Trelleborg Coated Systems, which supplies solutions for polymer-coated fabrics; Trelleborg Industrial Solutions, which provides polymer-based solutions for industrial antivibration solutions and industrial sealing systems; Trelleborg Offshore & Construction, which supplies polymer-based solutions used in offshore oil and gas and infrastructure construction environments; Trelleborg Sealing Solutions, which supplies polymer-based sealing solutions deployed in general industry, light vehicle and aerospace environments; and Trelleborg Wheel Systems, which supplies tires and wheels for materials handling vehicles.

Volvo AB Class B

Volvo is a manufacturer of trucks, buses, construction equipment and marine and industrial engines. Co.'s activities are organized into six areas: Group Trucks, which sells and markets trucks under Eicher, Mack, Renault Trucks, UD Trucks and Volvo brands; Construction Equipment, which includes equipment for construction and related industries; Buses, which includes buses and bus chassis for city, intercity and coach traffic; Volvo Penta, which manufactures engines and drive systems for boats and commercial craft; Governmental Sales, which manufactures special-purpose vehicles; and Volvo Financial Services, providing customer financing and leasing, dealer financing and fee based products.

Provider
DnB Markets
DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

 

Analysts
Mattias Holmberg

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