Report
Martin Huseby Karlsen
EUR 91.47 For Business Accounts Only

Down, down, deeper and down

Following the large negative capex revisions so far this year, offshore E&P spending is set to take another leg down in 2020, representing a sixth (out of seven) years of decline since 2014. So far the oil companies have shown impressive flexibility in their budgets, and we calculate that 29 of those that have offshore exposure have on aggregate cut their spending for 2020 by 26%. Given the now even lower oil prices, we would not be surprised to see further cuts. As highlighted before, we are surprisingly seeing oil companies with pure offshore exposure cutting guidance more than those with both onshore and offshore exposure. Overall, we see total offshore E&P spending for 2020 down by around 15% YOY, and we believe offshore services will face a very challenging environment in 2020–2021. We expect more bad news ahead in terms of contract terminations, project delays, and depressed service pricing
Underlyings
Aker ASA Class A

Aker is an industrial investment company that exercises active ownership. Co. organizes its business activities in two segments: Industrial holdings and Financial investments. The industrial holdings comprise Co.'s ownership interests in Aker Solutions ASA, Kvaerner ASA, Det norske oljeselskap ASA, Ocean Yield ASA, Aker BioMarine ASA and Havfisk ASA. The financial investments comprise cash, real estate, investments in funds and other financial assets of Co. and holding companies, with the exception of industrial equity investments. Co.'s ownership interests are concentrated in the oil and gas, fisheries/marine biotechnology, maritime assets and finance sectors.

Aker Solutions ASA

Aker Solutions is a provider of products, systems and services to the oil and gas industry. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the field of engineering, design and technology aimed at improving production and recovery. Co. has 3 reportable segments which are the strategic business units of the group: Engineering Solutions (provides concept and front-end studies to oil companies), Product Solutions (delivers oilfield products for the entire upstream value chain, from reservoir through processing), and Field-Life Solutions (offers a range of services, which has the ultimate objective to increase oil and gas recovery from existing fields and extend the operating life of field assets).

Awilco Drilling

Awilco Drilling is engaged in the ownership of offshore drilling rigs for use in offshore drilling operations, and to provide drilling services for oil and gas companies using these rigs. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. owned and operated two semi-submersible drilling rigs, the WilPhoenix and WilHunter, which both rigs used in the drilling of oil and gas wells in the U.K. sector of the North Sea.

Borr Drilling

BW Offshore

CGG
CGG

CGG is a global participant in the geophysical seismic industry. Co. manufactures geophysical equipment and provides marine, land, and airborne data acquisition services. Co. also provides geosciences services, including data imaging, seismic data characterization, geosciences and petroleum engineering consulting services, and collecting, developing and licensing geological data. Co.'s clients are in oil and gas exploration and production industies. Co. divides its activities into four segments: Equipment, Contractual Data Acquisition, Geology, Geophysics and Reservoir (GGR), and Non-Operated Resources, including eight business lines, six Corporate functions, and four Group Departments.

Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.

Diamond Offshore Drilling provides contract drilling services to the energy industry around the globe. The company's fleet enables it to provide services in the floater market on a worldwide basis. The company's contracts to provide offshore drilling services vary in their terms and provisions. The principal markets for the company's offshore contract drilling services are: the Gulf of Mexico, including the U.S., and Mexico; South America, principally offshore Brazil, and Trinidad and Tobago; Australia and Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam; Europe, principally offshore the U.K., and Norway; East and West Africa; and the Mediterranean.

DOF ASA

DOF is the parent company in DOF's group of companies which owns and operates a fleet of supply and subsea vessels as well as having the engineering capacity to service the subsea market. Co. operates worldwide and provides services to the global oil and gas industry. Co. operates in three segments of the offshore service market. These are defined by types of activities and vessel types: Platform Supply Vessels, Anchor Handling Tug Supply Vessels and Subsea Vessels and Subsea Engineering. The subsea engineering activities among others comprise Survey and Positioning, Inspection, Repair and Maintenance Services, Construction Support, Diving Services and Mooring Projects.

Kvaerner ASA

Kvaerner is an industrial investment company, consisting of various operational and non-operational interests. Through its controlling interest in Aker ASA, Co. is engaged in providing services related to design, construction, maintenance, modification and operation of both large and small industrial facilities. The business spans a number of industries, including oil and gas upstream and downstream, process, pharmaceuticals, metals, power, chemical, pulping, environmental technologies and shipbuilding. Co.'s indirect activities in are divided into three business areas: Oil & Gas, Engineering & Construction and Shipbuilding.

Magseis Fairfield

Magseis Fairfield ASA, formerly Magseis ASA, is a Norway-based company engaged in geophysical surveying and mapping. The Company specializes in Ocean Bottom Seismic (OBS) acquisition services dedicated to the oil and gas industry. The Company's Marine Autonomous Seismic System (MASS) consists of the in-sea cable and sensor capsules, automated handling and data download. Together with a range of miniaturized Fairfield Z-nodes, it enables operations in water depths to 3000 meters. The Company divides its operations into six regions, namely Barents Sea (Norway), Malaysia, Singapore, the Red Sea, United Kingdom and Sweden. It has offices in Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Singapore and the United States.

Odfjell Drilling

Odfjell Drilling Ltd. (Odfjell Drilling) is an integrated offshore drilling and oil service company. The Company operates through three segments: Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODU), Drilling & Technology, and Well Services. The Mobile Offshore Drilling Units is responsible for operations of mobile drilling units fully or partly owned by the Company and units owned by other companies. It operates mobile drilling units in Norway, United Kingdom, Angola, Vietnam and Brazil. The Drilling & Technology segment is providing platform drilling, project management and engineering services. Drilling & Technology operates from offices in Bergen, Stavanger and Aberdeen. The Well Services segment is a provider of casing and tubing running services (TRS), drill tool rental and well intervention services to the onshore and offshore oil and gas industry. The Well Services are provided to onshore and offshore drilling operations in the North Sea, mainland Europe and Black Sea, among others.

Pacific Drilling S.A.

Pacific Drilling is an international offshore drilling company committed to providing drilling services to the oil and natural gas industry through the use of high-specification rigs. Co.'s primary business is to contract its high-specification rigs, related equipment and work crews, primarily on a dayrate basis, to drill wells for Co.'s customers. Co. operates five drillships under client contract and has three drillships available. All of Co.'s drillships are self-propelled and dynamically positioned and have large carrying capacity. Co.'s five existing drillships are committed to work in the deepwater regions of the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and Nigeria.

PGS ASA

Petroleum Geo-Services is engaged in providing geophysical services and oil and gas production services. As of Dec. 31, 2001, Co. operated six Ramform design vessels in its marine seismic data acquisition operations.

Polarcus Limited

Prosafe S.E.

Prosafe is a supplier of products and services in selected niches of the global oil and gas industry, specifically in the high end of the global offshore accommodation/service industry. Co.'s operations comprise a parent company and the business division Offshore Support Services, a global owner and operator of semi-sumbersible accommodation/service rigs. Co. owns 11 of 16 available units. These rigs serve charters with five units in the North Sea, five units in the Gulf of Mexico, and one unit in the Philippines. In addition, the division owns one jack-up accommodation/service rig.

SeaDrill Ltd

Subsea 7 S.A.

Subsea 7 is a provider of seabed-to-surface engineering, construction and services contractor to the offshore energy industry. Co. provides products and services required for subsea field development, including project management, design and engineering, procurement, fabrication, survey, installation, and commissioning of production facilities on the seabed and the tie-back of these facilities to fixed or floating platforms or to the shore. Co. also provides products and capabilities to deliver full Life of Field services to its clients. Through its i-Tech Division, Co. provides remotely operated vehicles and tooling services to support exploration, production and drilling activities.

TechnipFMC Plc

TechnipFMC is global leader in oil and gas projects, technologies, systems, and services. Co. offers subsea, surface, onshore, and offshore solutions for oil and gas projects. Co. serves customers worldwide. With Co.'s technologies and production systems, integrated expertise, and comprehensive solutions, Co. is transforming Co.'s clients' project economics. Co. is uniquely positioned to deliver greater efficiency across project lifecycles from concept to project delivery and beyond. Through innovative technologies and improved efficiencies, Co.'s offering unlocks new possibilities for Co.'s clients in developing their oil and gas resources.

TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA

TGS Nopec Geophysical provides geoscience data to oil and gas exploration and production companies worldwide. In addition to global geophysical and geological data libraries that include seismic data, magnetic and gravity data, digital well logs, production data and directional surveys, Co. also provides advanced processing and imaging services, interpretation products, permanent reservoir monitoring and data integration solutions.

Transocean Ltd.

Valaris PLC Class A

Ensco is an offshore contract drilling company engaged in providing offshore contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. owned and operated an offshore drilling rig fleet of 62 rigs. Co.'s rig fleet includes 12 drillships, 11 semisubmersible rigs, four moored semisubmersible rigs and 38 jackup rigs, including rigs under construction. Co.'s business consists of three operating segments: floaters, which includes its drillships and semisubmersible rigs; jackups; and other, which consists of management services on rigs owned by third-parties. Co.'s two reportable segments, floaters and jackups, provide one service, contract drilling.

Provider
DnB Markets
DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

 

Analysts
Martin Huseby Karlsen

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