Weekly news, topics & discussion
We published Q3 previews this week on Aker BP and Vår Energi ahead of their production updates (due on 5 and 12 October, respectively). Our revenue estimates are in line with consensus for Aker BP, but 8% below for Vår Energi, likely due to our lower-than-consensus forecasts for production and realised prices. The Breidablikk field is scheduled for start-up in October; we expect this to add c20kboed production to Vår Energi and Equinor, respectively. Also, Equinor has taken the final investment decision on the USD3.8bn Rosebank project, with start-up expected in 2026/2027.Aker BP Q3 preview. We forecast Q3 production of 454kboed versus the company-compiled consensus of 451kboed. Our estimate represents a meaningful drop from 481kboed in Q2, driven by scheduled maintenance at several key facilities in August and September. Once completed, we expect Q4 production to be more on a par with Q2. Our Q3 revenue estimate is in line with consensus, while our EBITDA is 2% above. Unit costs should have remained low in Q3, helped by the still-weak NOK versus USD. We made limited estimate changes and reiterated our BUY and NOK345 target price.See full report
Vår Energi Q3 preview. We estimate Q3 production of 207kboed (no reliable consensus) and realised prices of cUSD85/boe. Our USD1,579m revenue estimate is 8% below Bloomberg consensus of USD1,708m, with the deviation likely due to our expectations of lower production and realised prices than consensus. We highlight that production in Q3 should be up QOQ, with additional volumes from recent start-ups (Fenja, Hyme, and Bauge), and partly offset by high maintenance activity in the latter part of the quarter negatively affecting gas production. We made limited estimate changes and reiterated our BUY and target price of NOK37. See full report
Breidablikk field to start up in October. According to the NPD, start-up of the Breidablikk development is expected in October (Vår Energi previously said Q4). We forecast this field to add c20kboed net production to Vår Energi and Equinor respectively once online. The total recoverable resources are estimated (company) to be c190mmboe (100% liquids).
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
BW Energy Ltd. BW Energy Limited is a Bermuda-based oil and gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Company is involved in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas fields. It has a diversified portfolio of production and development assets offshore West Africa and Brazil, and holds interests in three hydrocarbon licenses in Gabon, Brazil and Namibia. Its Dussafu Marin Permit and the associated Ruche Exclusive Exploitation Area (EEA) production license are located approximately 50 kilometers (km) off the coast of Gabon. The Ruche EEA covers an area of approximately 850 square kilometers. The Maromba discovery is located approximately 100 kilometers offshore in the southern part of the Campos Basin. The Kudu gas field is some 130 km offshore and covers an area approximately 4,500 square kilometers. The Company's subsidiaries include BW Energy Dussafu B.V., BW Energy Gabon Pte Ltd, BW Energy Gabon SA and BW Energy Holdings Pte Ltd.
DNO is a Norwegian exploration and production company focused on the Middle East and North Africa. Co. holds stakes in oil and gas blocks in various stages of exploration, development and production, both onshore and offshore, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia and Somaliland.
Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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