Report
Martin Huseby Karlsen
EUR 90.88 For Business Accounts Only

Petrobras set to reduce 2025 capex

Petrobras is expected to reduce 2025 capex from USD21bn to around USD17bn, according to a Reuters article today. Petrobras has a 5-year capex plan, but there are usually changes to its plans, and “current year” / “near-term” spending has a track-record of being revised lower (2024 capex was recently cut c24% to USD13.5bn–14.5bn), as Petrobras has struggled with value-chain delays. The updated spending represents YOY growth in 2025 of c21% (versus c50% earlier). The article mentions equipment price inflation, financing limitations and challenges in obtaining exploration permits as some of the reasons for the capex reduction. We believe these are partly related to investments being pushed out in time rather than projects being abandoned. While this article did not provide details on whether the overall 5-year spending plan would be reduced, a report from last week indicated that its new 5-year plan could see capex c8% higher than last year’s plan. Hence, we see this mostly as a shift of spending to the right. Among companies under our coverage with Petrobras exposure (mostly asset-heavy), assets are already contracted for 2025–2026, and we see no impact from the capex reduction. Still, from a capital markets perspective, headlines with near-term capex reductions are usually not supportive for investor sentiment and share prices. For asset-light companies, there might be lower volumes than expected for 2025.
Underlyings
Aker Solutions ASA

Aker Solutions is a provider of products, systems and services to the oil and gas industry. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the field of engineering, design and technology aimed at improving production and recovery. Co. has 3 reportable segments which are the strategic business units of the group: Engineering Solutions (provides concept and front-end studies to oil companies), Product Solutions (delivers oilfield products for the entire upstream value chain, from reservoir through processing), and Field-Life Solutions (offers a range of services, which has the ultimate objective to increase oil and gas recovery from existing fields and extend the operating life of field assets).

Borr Drilling

BW Offshore Limited

BW Offshore Limited. BW Offshore Limited is a Bermuda-based company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates oil and gas floating production, storage and offloading vessels (FPSOs) and floating, storage and offloading vessels (FSOs). It also focuses on field developments of discovered oil and gas fields. The Company operates across Europe, Asia Pacific, West Africa and the Americas. The Company is comprised of BW Offshore, BW LPG, BW Pacific, BW LNG, BW VLCC, BW Chemical Tankers, BW Dry Cargo and BW Fleet Management. It owns a fleet of 15 FPSOs and one FSO, operating in West Africa, Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, Indonesia, New Zealand and in the North Sea. Its owned fleet includes the vessels, such as BW pioneer, , Yuum K'ak Naab, Pemex, BW Cidade De Sao Vicente, FPSO Polvo, Berge Helene, Abo FPSO, Sendje Berge, Espoir Ivoirien, Petroleo Nautipa, BW Athena, BW Catcher (Premier Oil), and BW Adolo( BW energy).

Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.

Diamond Offshore Drilling provides contract drilling services to the energy industry around the globe. The company's fleet enables it to provide services in the floater market on a worldwide basis. The company's contracts to provide offshore drilling services vary in their terms and provisions. The principal markets for the company's offshore contract drilling services are: the Gulf of Mexico, including the U.S., and Mexico; South America, principally offshore Brazil, and Trinidad and Tobago; Australia and Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam; Europe, principally offshore the U.K., and Norway; East and West Africa; and the Mediterranean.

DOF GROUP ASA

NOBLE CORP NEW

Odfjell Drilling

Odfjell Drilling Ltd. (Odfjell Drilling) is an integrated offshore drilling and oil service company. The Company operates through three segments: Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODU), Drilling & Technology, and Well Services. The Mobile Offshore Drilling Units is responsible for operations of mobile drilling units fully or partly owned by the Company and units owned by other companies. It operates mobile drilling units in Norway, United Kingdom, Angola, Vietnam and Brazil. The Drilling & Technology segment is providing platform drilling, project management and engineering services. Drilling & Technology operates from offices in Bergen, Stavanger and Aberdeen. The Well Services segment is a provider of casing and tubing running services (TRS), drill tool rental and well intervention services to the onshore and offshore oil and gas industry. The Well Services are provided to onshore and offshore drilling operations in the North Sea, mainland Europe and Black Sea, among others.

ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD

PARATUS ENERGY SERVICES LTD.

SeaDrill Ltd

Shelf Drilling Ltd.

Shelf Drilling North Sea

Subsea 7 S.A.

Subsea 7 is a provider of seabed-to-surface engineering, construction and services contractor to the offshore energy industry. Co. provides products and services required for subsea field development, including project management, design and engineering, procurement, fabrication, survey, installation, and commissioning of production facilities on the seabed and the tie-back of these facilities to fixed or floating platforms or to the shore. Co. also provides products and capabilities to deliver full Life of Field services to its clients. Through its i-Tech Division, Co. provides remotely operated vehicles and tooling services to support exploration, production and drilling activities.

TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company ASA

TGS Nopec Geophysical provides geoscience data to oil and gas exploration and production companies worldwide. In addition to global geophysical and geological data libraries that include seismic data, magnetic and gravity data, digital well logs, production data and directional surveys, Co. also provides advanced processing and imaging services, interpretation products, permanent reservoir monitoring and data integration solutions.

Transocean Ltd.

VALARIS LTD

Provider
DnB Markets
DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

 

Analysts
Martin Huseby Karlsen

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