Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Resetting valuation expectations
Even with its solid demand, we see near-term challenges from cost inflation not being fully offset by price changes; thus, we have reduced our 2022–2024e EPS by 6–14%. We still like Ambea’s demand outlook, asset-light growth, cash-generation, and attractive valuation (2022–2024e FCF yield of 12–16%). We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK52 (73), resetting the valuation base to a 30% discount to its historical NTM valuation, better reflecting the current equity market trends.Ambea AB (publ) is a Sweden-based holding company within the care provider group. The Ambea group offers accommodation, support, training and staffing within health and social care. The Group has over 450 units throughout Sweden and in Norway. The Swedish operations comprise the brands Vardaga, Lara and Bemanning. Among other brands, there are Rent a Doctor, Rent a Nurse, Rent a Socionom and Careteam, as well as BoA Mellanvard. The Norwegian operations comprise support and residential care in disabilities and psychiatry through the companies Heimta and Vitale. The Company's main shareholders are ACTR Holding Ab and Actor General Partner SARL Sweden SCA. It operates Malrettet Intervensjon AS, Elevhalsan, Stod och Resurs AB and Tiltaksgruppa fokus as subsidiaries.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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