Ambea (Buy, TP: SEK73.00) - Occupancy recovery
Ambea enjoyed continued recovery in the elderly care home occupancy rate post-pandemic, offering a good Q1 beat, while our forecasts have been tweaked related to the phasing of new units. We see good potential in Vardaga’s new unit pipeline, with 64% not included in our forecasts due to the lack of an opening date, and in Ambea finding attractive acquisition targets. We still like its asset-light growth, cash-generating model, and attractive valuation (FCF yield 12–16% 2022–2024e). We reiterate our BUY and SEK73 target price.Ambea AB (publ) is a Sweden-based holding company within the care provider group. The Ambea group offers accommodation, support, training and staffing within health and social care. The Group has over 450 units throughout Sweden and in Norway. The Swedish operations comprise the brands Vardaga, Lara and Bemanning. Among other brands, there are Rent a Doctor, Rent a Nurse, Rent a Socionom and Careteam, as well as BoA Mellanvard. The Norwegian operations comprise support and residential care in disabilities and psychiatry through the companies Heimta and Vitale. The Company's main shareholders are ACTR Holding Ab and Actor General Partner SARL Sweden SCA. It operates Malrettet Intervensjon AS, Elevhalsan, Stod och Resurs AB and Tiltaksgruppa fokus as subsidiaries.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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