Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Rising SWAP rates hit sector, weak rental update

The sector has traded down in recent weeks on rising long-term SWAP rates, resulting in multiples contraction, but we do not expect significant changes to consensus 2025–2026e FFO/EPS. This week, Corem issued a Q4 net letting-related profit warning, confirming the terminated lease in Stockholm’s Kista district, and Sveafastigheter announced a CFO change. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.42% for 2024e and 5.10% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Sagax (Hold, TP: SEK240.00) - 2026e P/FFO in line with sector

We expect a solid Q4e result, with adj. PFPMps YOY growth of 12% and 12-month rolling growth of 5%, marking an end to the declining growth rate. We have raised our 2025–2026e FFOps by 4%, on a reclassification of NP3 to an associated company. Despite its substantial P/NAV premium, Sagax is trading at a 2026e P/FFO (based on our M&A scenario) roughly in line with our broader peer group. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK240 (260).

Wallenstam (Sell, TP: SEK40.00) - Interest-rate sensitive due to low-yielding asset base

We are broadly in line with consensus on Q4e PFPM. We forecast an asset value writedown of 2.5% QOQ (noting that Q4 is Wallenstam’s main value-revision quarter). We have cut our 2025–2026e FFOPS by 9% due to divestments and rising interest rates, to which the company is sensitive given its 2025e NIBD/EBIT of 17x. We reiterate our SELL, based on a too-rich P/FFO valuation, and have cut our target price to SEK40 (48).

Catena (Hold, TP: SEK490.00) - Decoupling from European peers persists despite weak performance

Compared with the Nordic sector, we consider Catena attractively valued at a 2025e P/FFO of 17.5x in combination with a very strong balance sheet – however, the valuation seems stretched versus European logistics peers. Going forward, we believe the swift drop in project capex (we forecast -c65% in 2025 YOY) could become a focal point for the market. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to SEK490 (550) on rising market interest rates.