Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Signs of sector recovery, and more Q1 results

The markets were much quieter following the Easter break, with limited news; however, the names we cover saw their shares up 2.6% on average, with Atrium Ljungberg (7.1%), SBB (7.1%) and Pandox (4.8%) the top performers. JM released its Q1 results and we reiterated our BUY, believing it has passed the earnings trough, while we reiterated our HOLDs on Corem and Fabege following their quarterly reports. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.04% for 2025e and 5.34% for 2026e.

Atrium Ljungberg AB: 1 director

A director at Atrium Ljungberg AB bought 31,350 shares at 32.936SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names o...

Wihlborgs (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Too-high premium versus peers

Q1 profit from property management (PFPM) was 1% above consensus and net lettings were on the strong side. Overall, we have made only minor estimate changes, raising our 2025–2027e FFOPS by 2–3%. With a large pipeline of ongoing projects (c1.5x of 2025e FFO left to invest) and following recent acquisition, the LTV is at its highest level since 2018. We see limited further FFOPS upside potential for 2025–2027. We consider the stock close to fully valued near-term and the valuation rich versus peers. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK105 (120).

Subsea 7 (Buy, TP: NOK205.00) - Saipem uncertainties reflected

We expect that seasonality and planned maintenance days will affect Q1, and are thus 15% below consensus (our full-year estimates are in line). We believe investor concerns around the Saipem merger are well reflected in the share price, as combined company multiples have come to Saipem stand-alone levels (prior to deal announcement). With cNOK40/share in shareholder returns (c26% of share price) over the next ~18 months, we consider the valuation attractive and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD). We reiterate our NOK205 target price.

Avance Gas (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Avance Gas, as it no longer has any assets, and does not plan to make any new investments. According to the company, remaining funds after its final USD0.74 DPS, to be paid on 7 May (ex-date 24 April), are expected to be used to settle any outstanding obligations to creditors, including liquidation fees, and the stock is expected to be delisted in June/July 2025. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.