Report
Mattias Montgomery
EUR 854.30 For Business Accounts Only

Shift in the narrative

We believe the general perception and stories of stocks or markets are often more important share price drivers than estimate changes or valuation. We define this as the ‘narrative’ and in this note identify the narrative changes we expect over the next 12 months. Our new Media Sentiment Indicator suggests the narrative for the Swedish housing market has turned more positive, but we see a risk of disappointments this autumn due to worsening underlying data. Meanwhile, for the Swedish commercial real estate market, we expect the narrative to focus more on rental income potential near-term.
Underlyings
Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B

Atrium Ljungberg is a property company. Co. owns, develops and manages properties and areas, primarily for the retail and office sectors. Co.'s operations are primarily located in Stockholm, Uppsala and Malmo. Co. develops areas and city districts in these three regions with a mixture of businesses. Most of Co.'s office portfolio is found in Stockholm: Sickla, Farsta, Sodermalm, Hagastaden and Kista. Co.'s residential properties are in the city district of Arvinge in Kista and the Mobilia area in Malmo. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s property portfolio includes a total of 47 properties.

JM AB

JM is a developer of housing and residential areas in the Nordic region. Co. focuses its operations on new production of homes, with the main focus on metropolitan areas and university towns in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Belgium. Co. is also involved in project development of commercial premises and contract work, primarily in the Greater Stockholm area. Co. is divided into five business units: JM Residential Stockholm, JM Residential Sweden, JM International, JM Property Development and JM Production.

Kungsleden AB

Kungsleden is a property company based in Sweden. Co.'s property holdings consist of commercial premises in Greater Stockholm, Malardalen, southwest Sweden and growth towns in Norrland. The portfolio is segmented into Office, Industrial/warehouses, Retail and Other. Co.'s operating segments are properties, which manage and develop properties and provides premises for external customers; and Nordic Modular, which lets modular buildings in a corresponding way as traditional premises and also produces and sells modules to external customers. As of Dec 31 2013, Co. had 366 total properties, of which 139 were offices, 135 were industrial/warehouses, 68 were retail, and 24 were other properties.

NCC AB Class B

NCC AB is a construction and property development company. Co. develops and builds residential and commercial properties, and constructs industrial facilities and public buildings, roads, civil engineering structures and other infrastructure. Co. also provides input materials used in construction and paving and road services. Co. operates three businesses: Industrial, which are based on stone materials and asphalt production, as well as asphalt paving and road services; Construction and Civil Engineering, which consists of NCC Construction Sweden, NCC Construction Denmark, NCC Construction Finland and NCC Construction Norway; and Development, which encompass housing and commercial property.

Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB

Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB is a Sweden-based company active within the real estate sector. The Company is engaged in the ownership, management and development of primarily commercial real estate properties in the Swedish cities of Malmo, Lund and Helsingborg, as well as Copenhagen in Denmark. The Company operates two divisions, namely Property Management, which is organized in nine geographically defined sub-areas, and Business Development, which consists of two units: Project & Development, and Transactions. Projects & Development deals with new build and redevelopment projects, as well as procurement, while Transactions manages all the Company's purchases and sales of properties.

Provider
DnB Markets
DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

 

Analysts
Mattias Montgomery

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