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Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - Volumes/costs aid Q1 EBITDA beat

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate by 19% and consensus by 22%, with help from solid volumes, lower energy costs and a higher share of premium products sold, FX tailwinds and further cost reductions. Its FID on the blue ammonia projects is still set for H1 2026 and it continues to highlight the strategic rationale of the investment. Our estimates are largely unchanged (no change to 2026–2027e EPS), with higher earnings following the report broadly offset by slightly lower nitrate prices in recent weeks. We reiterate our BUY and NOK425 target price.

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start to the year in Saudi Arabia and Mexico. Recently, ENI became the first large oil company to introdu...

Wihlborgs (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Too-high premium versus peers

Q1 profit from property management (PFPM) was 1% above consensus and net lettings were on the strong side. Overall, we have made only minor estimate changes, raising our 2025–2027e FFOPS by 2–3%. With a large pipeline of ongoing projects (c1.5x of 2025e FFO left to invest) and following recent acquisition, the LTV is at its highest level since 2018. We see limited further FFOPS upside potential for 2025–2027. We consider the stock close to fully valued near-term and the valuation rich versus peers. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK105 (120).

Subsea 7 (Buy, TP: NOK205.00) - Saipem uncertainties reflected

We expect that seasonality and planned maintenance days will affect Q1, and are thus 15% below consensus (our full-year estimates are in line). We believe investor concerns around the Saipem merger are well reflected in the share price, as combined company multiples have come to Saipem stand-alone levels (prior to deal announcement). With cNOK40/share in shareholder returns (c26% of share price) over the next ~18 months, we consider the valuation attractive and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD). We reiterate our NOK205 target price.

Avance Gas (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Avance Gas, as it no longer has any assets, and does not plan to make any new investments. According to the company, remaining funds after its final USD0.74 DPS, to be paid on 7 May (ex-date 24 April), are expected to be used to settle any outstanding obligations to creditors, including liquidation fees, and the stock is expected to be delisted in June/July 2025. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.