Initiating coverage of Axfood (Hold) and ICA (Sell)
We initiate coverage with a HOLD and SEK200 target price. We consider Axfood the Swedish grocer best-positioned to benefit from changing market dynamics and to be a relative outperformer given near-term economic uncertainty. However, this looks to be priced in, and we see limited scope for higher multiples given the current outlook.AxFood AB is a food retail company. Co. conducts food retail and wholesale business in Sweden. Retail business is conducted through the Willys, Hemkop and PrisXtra chains, with a total of 252 Co.-owned stores at Dec 31 2013. In addition, Co. collaborates with a number of proprietor-run stores that are tied to it through agreements, including stores in the Hemkop chain as well as stores operating under the Handlar'n, Tempo and Direkten brands. Wholesaling is conducted by Dagab and Axfood Narlivs, whose customers consist primarily of mini-markets, service stations and other convenience stores. Axfood Narlivs also operates 20 cash and carry outlets via the subsidiary, Axfood Snabbgross AB.
ICA Gruppen is a retail group based in Sweden. Co. is engaged in maintaining and operating its own and retailer-owned stores in Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland. Co. consists of ICA Sweden, ICA Norway and Rimi Baltic, which are mainly involved in grocery retail, ICA Real Estate which owns and manages properties, and ICA Bank which offers financial services to Swedish customers. Co. also includes the wholly-owned portfolio companies Forma Publishing Group and inkClub, as well as the partly-owned Cervera, Hemtex and Kjell & Company.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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