Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1500.00) - A return to fundamentals

We have cut our 2025e EPS by 3% (Asia revenue growth from 13% to 10% YOY) and our target price to SEK1,500 (1,570), but reiterate our BUY. We find underlying fundamentals still-healthy and near-term negatives more than reflected in the stock. After a strong end to Q4 (albeit early days), our data implies a healthy start to 2025 (daily average players +10% QOQ). Our Q4e EBITDA is EUR364m (68.2% margin, -30bp QOQ).

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - Set for zero Q4 EPS

We forecast Q4 EPS to be close to zero, in line with Vara consensus; EPS should improve in 2025–2026e but remain low nominally. For the Q4 webcast, we expect the focus to be on capital releases and cost efficiency programmes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.

December players up 11% m-o-m

Sagax (Hold, TP: SEK240.00) - 2026e P/FFO in line with sector

We expect a solid Q4e result, with adj. PFPMps YOY growth of 12% and 12-month rolling growth of 5%, marking an end to the declining growth rate. We have raised our 2025–2026e FFOps by 4%, on a reclassification of NP3 to an associated company. Despite its substantial P/NAV premium, Sagax is trading at a 2026e P/FFO (based on our M&A scenario) roughly in line with our broader peer group. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK240 (260).

Wallenstam (Sell, TP: SEK40.00) - Interest-rate sensitive due to low-yielding asset base

We are broadly in line with consensus on Q4e PFPM. We forecast an asset value writedown of 2.5% QOQ (noting that Q4 is Wallenstam’s main value-revision quarter). We have cut our 2025–2026e FFOPS by 9% due to divestments and rising interest rates, to which the company is sensitive given its 2025e NIBD/EBIT of 17x. We reiterate our SELL, based on a too-rich P/FFO valuation, and have cut our target price to SEK40 (48).

Catena (Hold, TP: SEK490.00) - Decoupling from European peers persists despite weak performance

Compared with the Nordic sector, we consider Catena attractively valued at a 2025e P/FFO of 17.5x in combination with a very strong balance sheet – however, the valuation seems stretched versus European logistics peers. Going forward, we believe the swift drop in project capex (we forecast -c65% in 2025 YOY) could become a focal point for the market. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to SEK490 (550) on rising market interest rates.