E-commerce traffic - October 2024

Quality just got cheaper

Boozt (Hold, TP: SEK115.00) - Q3 miss highlights Q4 uncertainty

Despite the weak Q3 results, management reiterated its full-year guidance, implying a strong finish to the year. However, given its YTD performance and Q4 facing very tough YOY comparables, we see a risk of Boozt missing the mid-point of its adj. EBIT guidance (we expect it to be at the bottom end). We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK115 (120), mainly on our lower estimates.

Hafnia Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates owing to the Q3 report and Q4 guidance. Hence, we have raised our 2024e EBITDA by 1%, while we have lowered our 2025–2026e by 2–1%. We continue to be positive on the tanker space, and forecast an 18–19% earnings yield for 2025–2026. Combined with its LTV now being below the 20% threshold for a 90% payout ratio, this should bode well for capital returns through dividends and/or accretive buybacks (we estimate a P/NAV of 0.7x). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK96 target price.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Kinnevik led a USD130m funding round in Enveda; 2) Latour continues delivering on its M&A agenda; 3) Lundbergs reported Q3 NAV was up 7% QOQ, as the Lundberg sphere tightens its grip on Industrivärden; and 4) we met VEF, following its portfolio company BlackBuck’s recent IPO.

Kindred Group (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Kindred Group following the delisting of the stock after the acquisition by Française des Jeux. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.