A fine company, but elevated estimate risks

Many questions into MtM

Coloplast hosting Meet-the-Management meeting 6 June. Hard to see Coloplast shed enough Kerecis data to remove worries. Stock still too expensive and cost inflation may be reemerging.

Mowi (Buy, TP: NOK235.00) - Q2e: broadly in line with consensus

We expect Q2 operating income of EUR269m, c4% below consensus at EUR281m; the deviation largely seems to be explained by the Canadian and Chilean operations. Overall, the demand response following the recent decline in the spot price is likely to be the main focus in the report (due at 06:30 CET on 21 August). After tweaking our 2024–2026e EPS, we reiterate our BUY and NOK235 target price.

Lyko Group (Sell, TP: SEK95.00) - Europe meeting tough comparables

Being below consensus on EBIT and net profit, we are cautious ahead of Lyko’s Q2 report. We expect focus to be on comments on Europe, efforts to improve the gross margin, and its cash flow position (bearing in mind the net debt/EBITDA of c4.6x at end-Q1). We reiterate our SELL and SEK95 of target price, reflecting Lykos’ stretched balance sheet and uncertainty on how the company navigates growth and profitability.

Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Solidifying leading position

Sampo has offered to acquire the remaining ~50% stake in Topdanmark, valuing the shares at a 2025e P/E of ~22x. The proposed transaction marks the final step in transforming Sampo from a conglomerate to a pure Nordic P&C company, with If P&C’s market share in Denmark set to increase from ~5% to ~20%, cementing it as the largest non-life company in the Nordics. We reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price.