NRC Group (Hold, TP: NOK4.00) - No signs of margin recovery

As expected, Q3 EPS was close to zero, with still-weak EBIT margins following the ETM project write-downs in Q2. The 2024 guidance was unchanged, for a negative adj. EBIT margin of 0.9–1.5%, but positive in 2025 (at least 2%) and 5%+ longer-term. While we see significant upside potential if NRC reaches the 5% target, its poor track record means we are still cautious about Q4–Q1, for which we expect EPS to again be close to zero. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK4 (3.2) given the option like pricing.

Significant upside - uncertainty remains

Operations in line, uncertainty persists

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Well positioned

While EBITDA was broadly in line with expectations, the Q3 report gave early signs of improved operational reliability, which we believe will be key to narrowing the discount to underlying values (the stock is trading at 0.6x P/NAV). Recent contract awards (including a new 12+12-month contract announced with the results) have made the fleet fully booked until the 2025 summer season, and three of the four 2025 newbuild deliveries are now booked directly following yard delivery. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resulting in lower ‘peak volumes’ and demand being spread over a longer period. The rig count is said to...