Equinor (Hold, TP: NOK300.00) - Upside still hinges on discipline
Equinor reported Q1 adj. EBIT 3% above our estimate and 5% above company-compiled consensus. Moreover, FCF was exceptionally strong at USD6.3bn, albeit helped by USD3.2bn in a working capital tailwind, which to our understanding is unlikely to reverse. We have increased our 2024e FCF to USD11bn (~13% FCF yield), which would leave Equinor with a ~USD3bn net cash position by year-end. Consequently, we expect this to trigger an extension of extraordinary dividends into 2025, which should be welcomed by investors. However, we still consider confirmation of capital discipline within the renewable segment necessary for any meaningful upside to the long-term investment case. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK300 target price.Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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