Equinor (Sell, TP: NOK220.00) - Probably as good as it gets
We still see a poor risk/reward in the stock, and struggle to identify any upside potential, as the scale-back in renewables has materialised. We doubt renewables ambitions will be cut further, and remain wary of potential cost overruns. With its net debt ratio within the targeted range in 2025e, we believe dividends and buybacks post-2025 could be capped by FCF, which on our estimates, is set to drop sequentially in 2026–2027 (10–5% yield), ultimately leading to inferior shareholder distributions compared to peers. We reiterate our SELL, but have increased our target price to NOK220 (200) on positive FCF revisions.Equinor is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Co. is primarily focused on exploration, development and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). Co.'s operations are organized into four segments. The Development and Production Norway and Development and Production International segments explore, develop, produce and extract crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy segment markets, trades, transports and processes oil and natural gas and renewable energy. The Other segment consists of global well and project delivery, research and develpoment, and business development.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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