DnB Markets - Evolution Gaming Group AB (EVO) Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1550.00) - Data needs to be explained

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DnB Markets

Martin Arnell

EUR 90.31 For Business Accounts Only

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1550.00) - Data needs to be explained

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average players dropped 9% QOQ in Q3. We struggle to fully understand the softness, although there could have been a slight negative effect from the temporary Union strike in the Tbilisi studio. On the positive side, MOM growth has returned in October (+4%) and the company should see volume support in H2 from a stronger Live game release schedule, among other things.

08/10/2024 1 EN

Underlying

Evolution Gaming Group AB

Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ) is a Sweden-based company active in the Internet services sector. It develops, produces, markets and licenses integrated business-to-business (B2B) live casino solutions for gaming operators. Its solutions allow a live table gaming by streaming of professional croupier services to end users via the online casino and gaming platforms. The Company has offices and production studios in the United Kingdom, Sweden, Malta, Italy, Spain and Latvia.

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SE0012673267 Nasdaq Nordic Stockholm Sweden

Provider

DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

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Analysts

Martin Arnell

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ABG Sundal Collier

Patience shall be rewarded

In-depth: we launch our Evo player activity tracker update. Risk to consensus Q3 and '24 margin guidance, but market could discount even worse – keep BUY.

7h / 20m 7h / 20m 1 EN

DnB Markets

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1550.00) - Turn the page and let’s get to work

We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK1,550 (1,600) on a 3% cut to our 2024e EBIT, reflecting temporarily reduced capacity of tables in Q3 in a key studio (union strike in Tbilisi). The share buybacks should continue in Q4, and focus shifting to 2025e should be positive for the equity story in our view, with a return to healthy EPS growth (nearly 20% YOY), and more tangible evidence of the much-improved capital allocation strategy.

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September 25, 2024 September 25, 2024 1 EN

Green Landscaping Group (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Q3e likely solid, but CMD in focus

We expect Green Landscaping to report a solid Q3, driven by organic revenue growth in Norway and Rest of Europe and easing comparables. We see Q3 as the trough for the Swedish business unit as it exits a loss-making contract. Despite a likely strong Q3e, we expect the results to be outshone by the recently announced CMD. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.

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14h / 14m 14h / 14m 1 EN

Aleksander Erstad

Aleksander Erstad

DOF Group (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Accretive fleet expansion

The proposed acquisition of Maersk Supply Service is set to position DOF as the market leader in CSVs and large AHTS vessels, giving increased scale in an increasingly sold-out subsea market at attractive terms (24% discount to GAV). We have included Maersk in our estimates, and consider the combined valuation attractive at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 3.9x and annualised dividend yield of 14% from Q2 2025. We reinstate a recommendation with a BUY and NOK140 target price.

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15h / 14m 15h / 14m 1 EN

Johannes Grunselius

Johannes Grunselius

SSAB (Hold, TP: SEK55.00) - Market headwinds taking their toll

We have cut our 2024–2025e earnings again, mainly due to a more cautious view on steel prices in general but US plate in particular. While we remain confident in the longer-term outlook for earnings, dividends and transformational investments, we expect industry newsflow to remain negative at least until the end of the year, and are increasingly concerned about SSAB’s Q4 earnings. As a result, we have cut our target price to SEK55 (85) and downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

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18h / 8m 18h / 8m 1 EN

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Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1550.00) - Data needs to be explained

Patience shall be rewarded

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1550.00) - Turn the page and let’s get to work

Green Landscaping Group (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Q3e likely solid, but CMD in focus

DOF Group (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Accretive fleet expansion

SSAB (Hold, TP: SEK55.00) - Market headwinds taking their toll

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