DnB Markets - Evolution Gaming Group AB (E3G1) Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1700.00) - Returning to growth focus

Report

DnB Markets

Martin Arnell

EUR 94.93 For Business Accounts Only

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1700.00) - Returning to growth focus

We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) on recent share price softness and likely continuing support from strong growth, while our SEK1,700 target price is intact. We forecast Q2 revenues up 94% YOY and EBITDA up 110% YOY (results due at 07:30 CET on 21 July), with the rollout of dedicated tables more than offsetting any slight negative effects from stay-at-home trend reversal.

29/06/2021 17 EN

Underlying

Evolution Gaming Group AB

Evolution Gaming Group is a B2B provider of Live Casino solution systems in Europe. In Live Casino, a dealer runs the game from a casino table which is streamed in real time. End users, i.e. the players, make betting decisions on their devices (computers, smartphones, tablets, etc.) and are able to communicate with the dealer using a text chat function. Co.'s core portfolio consists of nine games such as Live Roulette, Live Blackjack, Live Baccarat, Live Casino Hold'em, Live Three Card Poker and Live Caribbean Stud Poker. Co.'s gaming portfolio offers the operators' end users an interactive experience that feels like playing in a real casino.

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SE0006826046 Frankfurt Stock Exchange Germany

Provider

DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

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Analysts

Martin Arnell

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Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1800.00) - Strong table games in September

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average player count continues to show monthly improvement since early August. In September, the tracker is so far showing +8% MOM driven by double-digit growth in roulette and baccarat. Although boosted by seasonality, we consider the near-term trends a relief and coupled with strong growth in new dedicated Live tables, we see potential upside to our Q3e revenue growth QOQ.

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September 20, 2021 September 20, 2021 11 EN

DnB Markets

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1800.00) - Late-summer player improvement

After low-season June-July, Evolution has returned to MOM growth in daily average players so far in August, according to our tracker covering the ‘scalable games’. Moreover, we assume revenue growth support in H2e from key new game releases; and continued step-up of new dedicated Live tables (blackjack; not covered by our tracker) still boosted by pent-up demand among the online operators, Evolution’s customers.

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Electrolux Professional (Hold, TP: SEK75.00) - Q4 looks set to be a repeat of Q3

We expect broadly similar market and divisional dynamics QOQ in Q4, but are less optimistic on growth in the US Food & Beverage segment (we now see the recovery materialising slightly later than initially envisaged). We forecast 6.0% growth YOY in group sales in Q4 and an adj. EBITA margin of 12.3%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK75 (79) based on our view of a delayed US Food & Beverage recovery as well as continued headwinds in the Middle East into 2025.

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Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK92.00) - Uncertainty remains high

In Q4, we forecast similar demand and market dynamics to Q3, with consumer downtrading, elevated promotional activity, a negative mix, price pressure, and weak consumer demand weighing on sales and EBIT. We expect a sales decline of 1.6% YOY (organic growth of 2.6%) and an adj. EBIT margin of 3.2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK92 (94).

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December 23, 2024 December 23, 2024 1 EN

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Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Disappointing CagriSema data

In REDEFINE-1, CagriSema reached a 22.7% product estimand weight loss, shy of expectations. We expect a launch in 2026, but have lowered our estimate of its sales potential. In our view, the flexible protocol affected efficacy, prompting Novo Nordisk to initiate a new phase III trial in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK1,040 (1,150).

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Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1700.00) - Returning to growth focus

Evolution AB: 1 director

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1800.00) - Strong table games in September

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1800.00) - Late-summer player improvement

Electrolux Professional (Hold, TP: SEK75.00) - Q4 looks set to be a repeat of Q3

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK92.00) - Uncertainty remains high

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Disappointing CagriSema data

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