DnB Markets - Evolution Gaming Group AB (E3G1) ... Northern Lights

Report

DnB Markets

Karl-Johan Bonnevier ...

Martin Arnell
Ole-Andreas Krohn
Paul Harper

EUR 44.98 For Business Accounts Only

Northern Lights

15/12/2020 15 EN

Underlyings

Evolution Gaming Group AB

Evolution Gaming Group is a B2B provider of Live Casino solution systems in Europe. In Live Casino, a dealer runs the game from a casino table which is streamed in real time. End users, i.e. the players, make betting decisions on their devices (computers, smartphones, tablets, etc.) and are able to communicate with the dealer using a text chat function. Co.'s core portfolio consists of nine games such as Live Roulette, Live Blackjack, Live Baccarat, Live Casino Hold'em, Live Three Card Poker and Live Caribbean Stud Poker. Co.'s gaming portfolio offers the operators' end users an interactive experience that feels like playing in a real casino.

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SE0006826046 Frankfurt Stock Exchange Germany

Scandic Hotels

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Provider

DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

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Analysts

Karl-Johan Bonnevier

Martin Arnell

Ole-Andreas Krohn

Paul Harper

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Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1800.00) - Strong table games in September

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average player count continues to show monthly improvement since early August. In September, the tracker is so far showing +8% MOM driven by double-digit growth in roulette and baccarat. Although boosted by seasonality, we consider the near-term trends a relief and coupled with strong growth in new dedicated Live tables, we see potential upside to our Q3e revenue growth QOQ.

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Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1800.00) - Late-summer player improvement

After low-season June-July, Evolution has returned to MOM growth in daily average players so far in August, according to our tracker covering the ‘scalable games’. Moreover, we assume revenue growth support in H2e from key new game releases; and continued step-up of new dedicated Live tables (blackjack; not covered by our tracker) still boosted by pent-up demand among the online operators, Evolution’s customers.

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With ample evidence of improved demand for paper board and a better price outlook for market pulp, we believe earnings headwind has now turned into a tailwind. We also expect earnings to be driven by incremental volumes after capacity expansions at existing mills. After ambitious investments over the past three years, the company’s paper board capacity is up c25%, while its net long pulp position has increased by close to 30%. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR11 (7.7) on our increased estimates including higher dividends.

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Surgical Science (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Weaker than expected start to 2024

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Northern Lights

Evolution AB: 1 director

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1800.00) - Strong table games in September

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1800.00) - Late-summer player improvement

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Scope for a revaluation

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Limited news on EU approval

Surgical Science (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Weaker than expected start to 2024

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