Keen eye on vacancy rates

Interest rates have seemingly peaked, and more cuts are expected. Given the level at which rates are set to stabilise, we still expect some upward pressure on book value yields. NAV-wise, this is likely to be offset by rental growth and retained earnings, but our base case is limited growth in 2024–2025e. Rental KPIs remain the key focus, as vacancy rates continue to rise, particularly for offices, but so far rental prices have held firm. We maintain our neutral sector stance, with Castellum and Nyfosa as our top picks.

Sweden: Sentiment going from good to great

Next six months to show positive est. revisions. BUY the forward-leaning compounders with firepower. Pandox up to BUY (Hold), Hufvudstaden down to SELL (Hold)

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Topdanmark (No_rec, TP: DKK) - Discontinuing coverage

Given Sampo’s pending acquisition of Topdanmark and its subsequent delisting, we have discontinued coverage. Our last published recommendation, target price, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK175.00) - Earnings trend on track in H2e

We reiterate our BUY and SEK175 target price ahead of the Q3 results (due at 07:30 CET on 24 October). We expect a solid quarter, and our EBIT of EUR67m is c6% above consensus. A key question is to what extent Betsson was able to capitalise on strong player intake in the summer’s key football events. We remain positive on the growth outlook, and question how long the company can prioritise potential bolt-on M&A over buybacks.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly