Another round of Aramco suspensions expected

Market sources suggest Saudi Aramco will further reduce its rig count in the coming months through early contract terminations and potentially more suspensions, which would mark the ‘fourth round’ of rig reductions. This follows last month’s request for dayrate discussions (historically, such requests have preceded it suspending rigs). We believe this round could be extensive, affecting c10 jackups out of its current rig count of c57 rigs. At the peak, Aramco had 92 jackups (22% of global demand) on contract, while we see a potential scenario with the jackup rig count approaching 40 ahead. In ...

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Yara (Buy, TP: NOK425.00) - Volumes/costs aid Q1 EBITDA beat

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate by 19% and consensus by 22%, with help from solid volumes, lower energy costs and a higher share of premium products sold, FX tailwinds and further cost reductions. Its FID on the blue ammonia projects is still set for H1 2026 and it continues to highlight the strategic rationale of the investment. Our estimates are largely unchanged (no change to 2026–2027e EPS), with higher earnings following the report broadly offset by slightly lower nitrate prices in recent weeks. We reiterate our BUY and NOK425 target price.

TGS (Buy, TP: NOK110.00) - Exposed to spending cuts

We maintain our positive view on TGS; however, we have cut our 2025–2026e FCF by 20%, as we believe oil companies’ capex cuts could have a meaningful impact on seismic spending and TGS’s revenues. That said, near-term FCF should be supported by self-help elements from the PGS merger, and we find decent valuation support, with the stock trading at a ~15% FCF yield and ~9% dividend yield on 2025e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK110 (140).

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK155.00) - Another strong quarter

We forecast Ambu to have another strong quarter, with c14% organic growth (we are above consensus) and continued solid margin progression. Despite tariffs, we expect the company to maintain its full-year guidance, but possibly increase the top-line guidance later in the year. We will also look for comments on the impact of tariffs on margins in the coming years. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to DKK155 (165).