Hafnia Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates in light of the Q4 report. We find the considerable sell-off unwarranted and believe the product tanker market should continue to provide attractive returns to shareholders on structurally sound S&D dynamics. These include an ageing fleet (capacity-weighted average age of 16.2 years, up 36% from 11.9 since 2015), modest tanker orderbook (gross deliveries limited to 3% in 2025e and 4% in 2026e), and tangible demand triggers on further sanctions and stricter enforcement. Hafnia’s valuation (EV/GAV of 0.72x) implies a 5-year MR value of USD30m, slightly below the 10-year average and well below the recent peak of USD50m (September 2024). As we believe the upside risk outweighs the potential downside, we maintain our bullish view on the sector and the company, with limited adjustments to our outlook. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price to NOK85 (84).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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