The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2025

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Hexagon (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - Q1 results were a clearing event

Hexagon’s Q2e outlook was better than feared after its Q1 profit warning. We see an attractive risk/reward following the recent sell-off amid: 1) the organic sales growth and earnings momentum story unfolding with defensive traits (albeit bruised); 2) the ‘NewCo’ spin-off crystallising values; 3) new leadership starting on Monday, which should appeal to a broader investor base; and 4) an undemanding valuation on absolute and relative bases, near a historical trough. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK115 (137), having lowered our 2025e adj. EPS by 12%.

Airthings (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

As a result of DNB Markets acting as financial advisor in conjunction with the company’s announcement (link) of a strategic review prompted by a non-binding letter of intent from Firda AS to explore a potential sale of its business segment assets, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK167.00) - Softer margin, but lower costs

Helped by still-solid core revenues, cost reduction YOY and moderate loan losses, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of 12.3%, despite some margin pressure. With solid earnings generation, the bank increased its CET1 ratio by ~20bp to 18.0% and still guides for a 0.8%-point benefit from the implementation of Basel IV, boding well for meaningful distributions. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by 0–1%, That said, we reiterate our target price of NOK167. With the stock trading at a 2026e P/E of ~12.4x, we continue to find the valuation fair and reiterate our HOLD.

Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - We remain optimistic

Smartoptics’ Q1 results marked a slower start to the year than we forecast, primarily owing to weaker sales in Devices, which seems to be back to near-term tariff-induced uncertainty. On the flip side, we understand the slowdown seen towards end-Q1 has already caught up again in order inflow, and thus we remain upbeat for the quarters ahead. Following an estimate reduction, we have lowered our target price to NOK27 (30) but reiterate our BUY.