Swedish small caps

Swedish small caps

Northern Lights

I.A.R. Systems Group: 1 director

A director at I.A.R. Systems Group bought 60,000 shares at 81.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names ...

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK138.00) - Guidance still looks conservative

Having pre-released Q2 headline numbers and increased the 2024 guidance in mid-April, today’s detailed results provided few surprises. However, the important Endoscopy sales were slightly better than expected, and we find today’s guidance for >15% organic growth YOY (previously c15%) for that part of company still conservative, with potential for a further rise with the Q3 results. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK138 (130).

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK500.00) -

Battered for a number of quarters by operating issues, lower metal grades at key mines and falling metal prices, we believe Boliden’s earnings headwind is now a tailwind. Moreover, on top of support from higher metal prices, we see distinct company-specific earnings drivers for 2024–2027e: 1) Odda completion; 2) Tara restart; 3) restored Rönnskär operations; and 4) normalised copper grades at Aitik. Our 2027e record earnings translate into a low P/E of c7x, and we see ample room for cash distribution beyond our base case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK500 (420).

Shelf Drilling (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Focus on re-contracting

Focus for the Q1 report is on revised 2024 guidance following the four Aramco rig suspensions, an update on re-contracting opportunities for those, and progress on an ONGC tender, where it is well placed to extend two incumbents. We consider the 2025e EV/EBITDA of 2.9x and cash flow yield to EV of 15% as compelling. Being among the most leveraged offshore drillers in our coverage, we reiterate our BUY and NOK40 target price.