Swedish small caps

Swedish small caps

Northern Lights

I.A.R. Systems Group: 1 director

A director at I.A.R. Systems Group bought 60,000 shares at 81.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names ...

Holmen (Sell, TP: SEK370.00) - Weak earnings momentum

We consider Holmen a quality company and continue to like its shareholder-friendly strategy. However, as c50% of the 2023 EBIT was derived from the traditional paper business (for which addressable markets are shrinking), and with still-tough markets for the paperboard business and lower spot prices for electricity affecting the renewable power business, we expect earnings to decline for 2024. Given relatively rich earnings multiples, we reiterate our SELL and SEK370 target price.

VEF (Buy, TP: SEK3.50) - Positive momentum continues

VEF wrote up its portfolio by 1% QOQ in Q1 (in USD terms). We believe the underlying portfolio performance remains healthy, and the USD10m up round in TransferGo strengthens our conviction in VEF’s NAV valuations as VC dealmaking continues to pick up after a lacklustre 2023. In light of these developments, we find the 56% discount to NAV excessive and expect a positive re-rating as VEF looks to make an exit this year. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK3.5 (3.4).

Volvo (Buy, TP: SEK340.00) - Beat in softer markets

The Q1 report supported our view that underlying profitability has improved structurally (now also evident in a weaker market), and that consensus will have to come up as 2024 progresses. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK340 (335), having raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 7–4% – we are now 8–10% above consensus.