EUR 464.97 For Business Accounts Only

The weekly navigator

The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we expect Kinnevik to raise the valuation of its unlisted portfolio by high-single digits in its Q4 results; 2) VEF could see some tailwinds in 2024; 3) Latour Industries made an acquisition; and 4) we are hosting an investor lunch with VNV Global’s CEO Per Brilioth at our Stockholm office next week.
From Kinnevik’s Q4 pre-silent analyst call, we highlight: 1) we expect a high-single digit positive revaluation of its unlisted portfolio in its Q4 results, driven by listed peers’ double-digit multiples expansion, partly offset by a ~5% FX headwind in the quarter; 2) our impression is that Q4 was fairly quiet in terms of portfolio activity (both new and follow-on), although we note for example the merger of Mathem and Oda; 3) down rounds in the overall VC industry should allow for more investments, although we expect mostly follow-ons at the start of the year; 4) our overall impression is fairly positive, and compared with recent years, Kinnevik entered 2024 with increased focus on managing its current portfolio rather than capital deployment (~30 new businesses added in five years).
Kinnevik's chairman James Anderson commented on its ~SEK12bn Tele2 holding (23% of NAV) this week, implying prospects of a larger sale of Tele2 shares. While our impression remains that Kinnevik could be a seller in Tele2 at above SEK100/each, we interpret his comments as growing optimism about the unlisted investment pipeline (which would not necessitate a Tele2 sell-off). In our view, Kinnevik seems aware that some of its shareholders like the stability of the ~SEK1bn annual dividends from Tele2.