Solid Swedish April sales m-o-m

Kindred Group Minor model adjustments

We have raised our 2024e adj. EBITDA by 2%, owing to the Q1 results and adj. EBITDA of GBP59.3m, up 20% YOY, 8% above our forecast (no consensus available) on surprisingly strong cost control (GBP10m lower opex than we forecast). The start to Q2 (daily average revenue up 8% YOY in constant currency, up to and including 4 February) was in line with our estimates, and the 2024 guidance for adj. EBITDA of GBP250m is unchanged. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our HOLD recommendation. We reiterate our SEK130 target price, in line with FDJ’s ongoing proposed ...

Limited surprises

Q1 was slightly above expectations but triggers limited revisions. Potential NL deposit limits could hurt Kindred as market leader. Keep HOLD on neutral risk-reward with SEK 130 cash offer.

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Scope for a revaluation

With ample evidence of improved demand for paper board and a better price outlook for market pulp, we believe earnings headwind has now turned into a tailwind. We also expect earnings to be driven by incremental volumes after capacity expansions at existing mills. After ambitious investments over the past three years, the company’s paper board capacity is up c25%, while its net long pulp position has increased by close to 30%. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR11 (7.7) on our increased estimates including higher dividends.

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Limited news on EU approval

The Q1 report was in line with expectations, with a small beat on the operating loss. The cash position at end-Q1 was nearly SEK1bn. There was limited news on the delayed EU approval (waiting on a SAG meeting). Eisai recently guided for Leqembi sales of JPY56.5bn (year to March 2025), implying royalties to BioArctic of cSEK360m. We reiterate our BUY and SEK350 target price.

Surgical Science (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Weaker than expected start to 2024

The weak Q1 results, with sales and adj. EBIT below our estimates, were largely due to a significant slowdown in Educational products. We have marginally revised our 2024–2026e on the strong management outlook for 2024, and reiterate our BUY and SEK230 target price. We believe the weak share price reaction on the report presents an opportunity for long-term investors.