Northern Lights

LeoVegas (Hold, TP: SEK61.00) - Finally made the big time

Following MGM’s SEK6bn bid for LeoVegas, equivalent to a blended average 2022–2023e adj. P/E of c15x on our new estimates, we have raised our target price to SEK61 (48) and downgraded to HOLD (BUY). Considering the board recommended MGM’s bid over several other parties’ non-binding proposals and the CEO/founder’s ‘irrevocable undertakings’, we see a high likelihood for the deal to be finalised and close in H2.

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR17.00) - Q1e hurt by external setbacks

We are just shy of consensus Q1e clean EBIT, reflecting demand challenged by several external setbacks. However, we continue to view Tokmanni as an attractive countercyclical case amid weak consumer trends, with an unduly low valuation despite a sharp step-up in its growth profile since last year’s acquisition of DollarStore. We reiterate our BUY and EUR17 target price.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.10) - OPTIMIZE-1 needs more patients

In connection with its Q1 report, Alligator Bioscience reported that the FDA wants to see more data from the low-dose cohort in OPTIMIZE-1 (15 more patients and recruitment has already started). This is due to Project Optimus within the FDA, and PK/PD data from the low-dose cohort should be available in Q1 2025. There is a risk that this added uncertainty could delay partnering discussions for mitazalimab, we believe. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1.10 (1.50).

Otovo (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Clouds still on the horizon

Needing to increase its activity meaningfully to cut its cash burn, soft order intake in Q1 leaves us concerned. With market prospects remaining weak, we consider one of the three following outcomes as likely: 1) a full take-over by the majority owners to restructure the company; 2) a sale to an industrial company; or 3) the stock remaining listed and existing owners carrying out a rights issue, resetting the equity value. With high uncertainty and a broad set of potential outcomes for the current equity, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.