A. P. Møller Mærsk (Buy, TP: DKK10800.00) - 2019 guidance in focus
We are in line with Q4 EBITDA consensus and the guidance mid-point (results due before the market opens on 21 February). All eyes are on the 2019 guidance, which could be a wide range due to market uncertainty with trade wars and IMO 2020. We have cut our 2019–2020 estimates to reflect this uncertainty, and now forecast 2019 EBITDA of USD5.3bn (consensus USD5.0bn) as Q1 freight rates look promising, up 10% QOQ net of bunkers. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK10,800 (10,700).A.P. Moeller Maersk is an international shipping company. Co.'s operating segments are: Container shipping and related activities which include global container services, inland transportation, manufacturing and repair of containers and container depots, and logistics and forwarding activities; APM terminals; Tankers, offshore and other shipping activities which include tanker shipping of crude oil, oil products and gas, offshore drilling activities and operation of land rigs, supply vessel activities with anchor handling and platform supply vessels, ferry services and door-to-door transportation in Northern Europe; Oil and gas activities; Retail activity; and Shipyards and other activities.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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