A. P. Møller Mærsk (Hold, TP: DKK23800.00) - Guidance could disappoint
Following a string of results and upward guidance revisions not living up to expectations, we are concerned that 2022 guidance could disappoint. We forecast an EBITDA of USD25bn versus Bloomberg consensus of USD27bn, while we believe expectations among buy-side investors could be even higher. However, strong markets are powering on and for now offsetting increased costs, while Maersk continues to secure long-term contracts. Normalising revenue could prove challenging for margins we believe, and we reiterate our HOLD with our target price raised to DKK23,800 (20,900) on increased 2022e FCF.A.P. Moeller Maersk is an international shipping company. Co.'s operating segments are: Container shipping and related activities which include global container services, inland transportation, manufacturing and repair of containers and container depots, and logistics and forwarding activities; APM terminals; Tankers, offshore and other shipping activities which include tanker shipping of crude oil, oil products and gas, offshore drilling activities and operation of land rigs, supply vessel activities with anchor handling and platform supply vessels, ferry services and door-to-door transportation in Northern Europe; Oil and gas activities; Retail activity; and Shipyards and other activities.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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