A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK8800.00) - Overcapacity at the gates

We find the recent share price strength surprising and likely short-lived due to a challenging supply/demand balance, only augmented by the escalating trade tensions. While we expect a Q1 beat versus consensus, we believe the company’s outlook is unlikely to satisfy buy-side expectations, and we see sizeable downside risk to the current valuation. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK8,800 (10,800).

Tariffs will hurt, but cons. is too low for Q1

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrapped, while a specific fee for all foreign-built car carriers and long-term restrictions on non-US-buil...

Stillfront Group (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

Due to Carnegie (DNB)’s role as financial advisor to the board and management in Stillfront’s strategic review announced today, we have withdrawn our recommendation (BUY) and target price (SEK12).

Tidewater (Buy, TP: USD55.00) - On track for 2025

Tidewater had a strong start to the year, with adj. EBITDA of USD154m (c25% above consensus and our estimate) and FCF of USD95m (44% above our forecast). The company reiterated its full-year guidance, with contract visibility on 88% of the revenue midpoint (USD1.35bn). We have made limited estimate revisions, and the stock is trading at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 4.4x and unlevered FCF yield of 14%. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and USD55 price target.

Hexagon Purus (No_rec, TP: NOK) - In rough waters

Hexagon Purus’s weak Q1 results underpinned the stark market challenges for its hydrogen- and battery-related businesses. Seeing a liquidity runway into Q2 2026 at the current underlying cost base, we welcome the company’s aim of further cost cuts to preserve cash, and hope to see the results of the ongoing portfolio review soon. However, we still believe a restructuring of the company’s NOK2.1bn in convertible debt is needed. We have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 5% on the weaker-than-expected Q1 results, and are well below consensus for 2025–2027e EBITDA. We reiterate our NO REC and no target pric...