Nibe Industrier (Hold, TP: SEK108.00) - Upside potential in energy prices

We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK108 (115) and our 2021–2022e adj. EBIT by 3–2%. We see upside potential to heat-pump demand from higher energy prices, as investment decisions depend on the economic benefits. If energy prices remain at current highs, we could see greater penetration rates in regions in which gas and oil heating are common such as North America, Germany, and the UK. We are 3% below consensus on Q3 adj. EBIT.

The new normal

Nordic Capital Goods (, ) - (69 pages)

Northern Lights

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK420.00) - In a sweet spot

Despite low mining volumes, the Q1 results were close to our expectations, thanks to good cost control. We have made significant estimate increases on better metal price and FX assumptions, and beyond 2024 we continue to see additional earnings support from: 1) higher mining volumes due to richer metal grades; 2) normal operations at Rönnskär; and 3) growing profits from the Odda smelter. Our spot-based estimates for 2027 translate to an EV/EBIT of 5.2x, but we see significant upside potential to our forecasts on our view of a promising outlook for copper and gold. We have raised our target pr...

Beijer Ref (Hold, TP: SEK156.00) - Building (cash flow) confidence

We have increased our cash flow estimates but have made moderate underlying forecast changes after the Q1 report. Inclusion of recent M&A and updated FX has led us to raise our adj. EBITA by c3% on average for 2024–2026e. We have raised our target price to SEK156 (152) due to our model changes and updated peer multiples. We reiterate our HOLD and see limited upside potential given the valuation seems on the high side.

Epiroc (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Mix headwind, benefits to come

Similar to Sandvik’s Mining business, the main miss in Epiroc’s Q1 was the soft margin, albeit for different reasons. Sandvik pointed to the unfavourable timing of equipment deliveries, while Epiroc alluded to a pure mix issue (high share of equipment, low share of service). Only small benefits from Epiroc’s cost measures have started to show – we expect more to be gradually realised through 2024. We have trimmed our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 1% on average. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK230 (235).