Nibe Industrier (Hold, TP: SEK108.00) - Upside potential in energy prices

We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK108 (115) and our 2021–2022e adj. EBIT by 3–2%. We see upside potential to heat-pump demand from higher energy prices, as investment decisions depend on the economic benefits. If energy prices remain at current highs, we could see greater penetration rates in regions in which gas and oil heating are common such as North America, Germany, and the UK. We are 3% below consensus on Q3 adj. EBIT.

The new normal

Nordic Capital Goods (, ) - (69 pages)

Northern Lights

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK257.00) - Understated activity resurgence

We expect rising stock markets and customer activity to offset much of the NII headwind from looming rate cuts, and to drive positive consensus earnings revisions for 2024–2025e. Our 2024–2026 EPS forecasts are broadly unchanged, leaving the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of c17x. With 10% upside potential to our unchanged SEK257 target price, we reiterate our HOLD.

Solid NCS production in March

The preliminary Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) production figures for the NCS in March showed strong liquids production of 2,086kboed (~4% above forecast) and gas production of 365mcm/d (broadly in line). Overall production was up 2.7% MOM. On a company level, production was down MOM for most names in February; Aker BP and Equinor were hit by reduced production from Johan Sverdrup, while Vår Energi was hampered by downtime at Fenja.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a Q1 preview on Equinor. We believe its share price upswing since its CMU is mainly attributable to strong performance by its peer group. The stock is trading at a 15% premium to peers, in line with its historical average. In other news, Vår Energi reported Q1 production in line with our estimates, with realised prices slightly above. We expect focus in the full Q1 report (due on 23 April) to be on Balder X and Johan Castberg. Also, according to news sources, Equinor’s challenging Wisting project looks set to move forward.