Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK5.10) - Soft project market

We have cut our 2024e adj. EBIT by 17%, mainly on lower margin assumptions for Nordic. Nobia expects continued challenging market conditions in 2024 (driven by the project segment), and plans to reduce its fixed cost base further. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK5.1 (5.0) on valuation.

Vicore Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Waiting for more data

Vicore Pharma reported Q1 earnings last week. The report was a non-event and focus in the short term will be on the next data update from the AIR trial (set for the ATS meeting) on 19 May. In addition, the planned phase IIb trial, ASPIRE, is set to commence in H1, and we believe this trial could have data read-out in 2026 and potentially be seen as a registration trial. We reiterate our BUY and SEK70 target price.

Q1 report: drumming for clear AIR

FLSmidth (Buy, TP: DKK440.00) - Mixed start to the year

Following a rather mixed Q1 report, our 2024–2026e clean EPS are virtually unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK440 (400) on a slightly raised SOTP multiple approach. We like the continued earnings quality improvement and further value-creation potential through an exit from Cement.

DOF Group (Buy, TP: NOK110.00) - Profiting from solid subsea market

DOF continued its strong execution in Q1, with EBITDA 5% above consensus. Net debt was flat QOQ but this was driven by non-cash lease additions for Maersk Installer, which should start contributing to earnings from Q2. The market keeps improving and management highlighted up to 10 long-term charter opportunities and clients already tendering for project work to be executed in 2027. It targets a refinancing in 2025 and said it aims for 1.5x net debt/EBITDA before paying dividends, which we forecast it should achieve by end-2025. We reiterate our BUY and NOK110 target price.

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Good start to the year

The Q1 results beat our estimates and consensus, with a strong EBIT margin of 24.2%, benefitting from operating leverage. The 2024 guidance was revised on FX for reported revenue growth to c3%-points (c4%-points) lower than in constant exchange rate (CER) terms, and adj. EBITDA growth to c8%-points (c9%-points) lower than in CER. However, in CER terms it was maintained for revenue up 7–10% YOY and adj. EBITDA up 10–16% YOY. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.