2018 could bring a modest deficit
If winter curtailments are implemented strictly we estimate that the global market could be in a modest deficit next year. However, we see significant risk to this given conflicting signals from China and current excess profits in the industry. We have lifted our 2018 aluminium price forecast to USD1,920/mt on cost support, and our Hydro EBIT estimate by 9%, and raised our target price to NOK60 (52), but reiterate our HOLD recommendation on the neutral risk/reward.Norsk Hydro is an aluminium group based in Norway. Co. is engaged in the supply of aluminium and aluminium products. Co. supplies casthouse products, such as extrusion ingots, sheet ingots and foundry alloys. Co's customers are active in sectors such as the packaging, lithographic, building, automotive and transport sectors. In addition, Co. is engaged in the production of power in Norway. Its business is divided into six operating segments: Bauxite & Alumina, Primary Metal, Metal Markets, Rolled Products, and Energy and Other and Eliminations.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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