Northern Lights

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - Overreaction presents opportunity

The Q1 earnings and outlook were largely in line with our forecasts, and over the coming days, the landslide situation affecting operations at the Halden mill should be sorted out. Although we have cut our 2023e EBITDA by 8%, we reiterate our BUY and NOK100 target price. Besides a solid balance sheet, we see sustained high earnings and generous dividends.

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - Transformational story intact

We have reduced our volume and price assumptions for 2023, but stress that we expect earnings to remain strong. With the Q1 report, we believe management will likely confirm that the two containerboard conversion projects remain on track and budget. Reflecting a more cautious view on the traditional business, we have cut our 2023e EBITDA by 10%, and in turn reduced our target price to NOK100 (117). Still, with the recent weak share-price performance, we see excellent entry points in the shares as we view the long-term case as intact.

Stillfront Group (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

Due to Carnegie (DNB)’s role as financial advisor to the board and management in Stillfront’s strategic review announced today, we have withdrawn our recommendation (BUY) and target price (SEK12).

Tidewater (Buy, TP: USD55.00) - On track for 2025

Tidewater had a strong start to the year, with adj. EBITDA of USD154m (c25% above consensus and our estimate) and FCF of USD95m (44% above our forecast). The company reiterated its full-year guidance, with contract visibility on 88% of the revenue midpoint (USD1.35bn). We have made limited estimate revisions, and the stock is trading at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 4.4x and unlevered FCF yield of 14%. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and USD55 price target.

Hexagon Purus (No_rec, TP: NOK) - In rough waters

Hexagon Purus’s weak Q1 results underpinned the stark market challenges for its hydrogen- and battery-related businesses. Seeing a liquidity runway into Q2 2026 at the current underlying cost base, we welcome the company’s aim of further cost cuts to preserve cash, and hope to see the results of the ongoing portfolio review soon. However, we still believe a restructuring of the company’s NOK2.1bn in convertible debt is needed. We have cut our 2025e EBITDA by 5% on the weaker-than-expected Q1 results, and are well below consensus for 2025–2027e EBITDA. We reiterate our NO REC and no target pric...