Northern Lights

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - Overreaction presents opportunity

The Q1 earnings and outlook were largely in line with our forecasts, and over the coming days, the landslide situation affecting operations at the Halden mill should be sorted out. Although we have cut our 2023e EBITDA by 8%, we reiterate our BUY and NOK100 target price. Besides a solid balance sheet, we see sustained high earnings and generous dividends.

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - Transformational story intact

We have reduced our volume and price assumptions for 2023, but stress that we expect earnings to remain strong. With the Q1 report, we believe management will likely confirm that the two containerboard conversion projects remain on track and budget. Reflecting a more cautious view on the traditional business, we have cut our 2023e EBITDA by 10%, and in turn reduced our target price to NOK100 (117). Still, with the recent weak share-price performance, we see excellent entry points in the shares as we view the long-term case as intact.

Airthings (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

As a result of DNB Markets acting as financial advisor in conjunction with the company’s announcement (link) of a strategic review prompted by a non-binding letter of intent from Firda AS to explore a potential sale of its business segment assets, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK167.00) - Softer margin, but lower costs

Helped by still-solid core revenues, cost reduction YOY and moderate loan losses, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of 12.3%, despite some margin pressure. With solid earnings generation, the bank increased its CET1 ratio by ~20bp to 18.0% and still guides for a 0.8%-point benefit from the implementation of Basel IV, boding well for meaningful distributions. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by 0–1%, That said, we reiterate our target price of NOK167. With the stock trading at a 2026e P/E of ~12.4x, we continue to find the valuation fair and reiterate our HOLD.

Smartoptics (Buy, TP: NOK27.00) - We remain optimistic

Smartoptics’ Q1 results marked a slower start to the year than we forecast, primarily owing to weaker sales in Devices, which seems to be back to near-term tariff-induced uncertainty. On the flip side, we understand the slowdown seen towards end-Q1 has already caught up again in order inflow, and thus we remain upbeat for the quarters ahead. Following an estimate reduction, we have lowered our target price to NOK27 (30) but reiterate our BUY.