Protector (Buy, TP: NOK350.00) - Set for strong 2025e momentum

Helped by continued repricing efforts across the Nordics, we expect Protector to report a solid Q4 underwriting result of NOK326m, with a seasonally strong combined ratio of 89.1%. Given the growth focus of Protector, and the seasonally low volumes in Q4, we await the important 1 January renewal date, forecasting ~14% local currency growth YOY, including France. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK350 target price.

Nordic non-life insurance – Q3 reporting wrap

Protector (Buy, TP: NOK270.00) - Set for sequential CR improvement

We expect favourable weather conditions to support solid underwriting in Q3 (results due at 18:00 CET on 23 October), with PTP boosted further by a strong result from the bond portfolio. Despite it being a low-volume quarter, we forecast premiums to increase 13% YOY on repricing, UK volumes and FX. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e and reiterate our BUY and NOK270 target price.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK130.00) - A gentle goodbye to 2024e

We are 2% above post-Q3 consensus on Q4e sales and 1% above on adj. EBITA, as we forecast an adj. EBITA margin of 17.2% (Q4 2023 15.7%, consensus 17.4%). We expect the company to guide for a construction market rebound not earlier than H2, but that M&A should be a contributor for growth in 2025 (M&A is not in our estimates). Following minor estimates changes, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK130 target price.

Danske Bank (Buy, TP: DKK233.00) - Set for continued solid distributions

Expecting still-solid NII, modest YOY cost inflation and low loan losses, we forecast a Q4 ROE of 11.5%. After having distributed an extraordinary DPS of DKK6.5 in December (following the divestment of its Norwegian retail portfolio), we expect the bank to announce an H2 DPS of DKK8.5, indicating a full-year payout ratio (including buybacks) of ~100%. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~0–3%, but with the stock trading at 2025e P/E of ~7.5x (adjusted for undistributed dividends for 2024e) and prospects for continued generous capital distributions, we still find the valuation attractive. Thus, w...

Alleima - Initiation of coverage - Multi-year mix story in the making

Alleima is not a traditional steel company, but rather a niche product company manufacturing products from advanced stainless steel. Most of its end-markets are benefiting from structural growth, while its market-leading positions in prioritised end-segments offer superior profitability and above-group average demand growth prospects. Based on a steady mix shift towards prioritised lucrative niches, we estimate a 12% 2024–2030 EBIT CAGR. We find the balance sheet holding net cash and the valuation attractive, and initiate coverage with a BUY and SEK100 target price.