Safe Bulkers (Buy, TP: USD5.70) - Still discounted dry bulk exposure
The market is pricing Safe Bulkers at a ~50% discount to NAV, which we believe mitigates any potential vessel value risk and leaves a still-favourable risk/reward towards the dry bulk supply-side narrative. However, we find the recent dry bulk freight market strength counter to fundamental demand drivers in China (importer of ~75% of seaborne iron ore volumes and ~50% of overall volumes), and see some market downside risk near-term. Still, at today’s share price, we see an attractive 17% earnings yield for 2024e and some upside potential on current 1-year TCs implying a ~20% earnings yield. We reiterate our BUY and USD5.7 target price.Safe Bulkers is an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, transporting bulk cargoes, particularly coal, grain and iron ore, along worldwide shipping routes for consumers of marine drybulk transportation services. As of Feb. 9, 2018, Co. had a fleet of 39 drybulk vessels, with an aggregate carrying capacity of 3,513,800 dwt and an average age of 7.6 years. Co. deploys its vessels on both period time charters and spot time charters. The vessels on period time charters provide Co. with relatively stable cash flow and utilization rates, while the vessels in the spot market allow Co. to maintain its flexibility in low charter market conditions.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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