CEO departure increases uncertainty

Exciting year ahead

Seasonally weak Q1 to show strong improvement. We have become more optimistic about profitability. BUY: Storytel is on a good path and the valuation is too low.

Storytel (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - The plot thickens

We believe recent insider trading and EQT’s board representative not standing for re-election could signal a potential shift in the shareholder base and direction for Storytel, which could create some short-term uncertainty, but also trigger a strategic review. We reiterate our BUY and SEK75 target price as we see potential upside to Storytel’s 2024 EBITDA margin guidance with a step change in FCF generation driving an undemanding valuation, with a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 7x, P/E of 19x and OpFCF yield of 10%.

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Soft Q1, with or without setbacks

The Q1 results were below our expectations, even after adjusting for the negatives on the group profit from the political strikes in Finland and the Red Sea conflict. On a positive note, the PCT price/mix was guided to hold up well, partly offsetting our revised lower sales expectations, while the Romanian factory appears to be ramping up on schedule. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9.0 (9.5), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c6% on average.

Lyko Group (Sell, TP: SEK95.00) - Stretched balance sheet

Following the Q1 report, we believe Lyko will not only have to make more substantial progress in balancing growth and cost control, but also consider new funding options more seriously. With financial expenses eating up earnings, its current debt position, and stretched balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA c4.6x), we have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target price to SEK95 (128).

Resurs Holding (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - Resur-recting the case

The market appears to be pricing in credit losses remaining high for many years, but we see the potential for declines starting in mid-2024, with early positive signs in March. We also find it likely that margins will be stable from here, which is not reflected in consensus. At a P/E of 3–4x for 2025e, we see good risk/reward. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–7%, our target price to SEK18 (15), and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD).