Cash flow outlook even stronger

Storytel (Buy, TP: SEK80.00) - Q3 displays flywheel dynamics

Storytel’s broad-based Q3 beat showcased flywheel dynamics, with solid net adds, record-low churn, a growing share of internal content consumption raising margins, improved customer acquisition efficiency, operating leverage from cost savings, and strong cash flows. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK80 (78), as Storytel’s raised full-year guidance continues to fuel positive consensus revisions, allowing for a combination of a step-change in earnings, FCF momentum, and an undemanding valuation, in our view. We also note Storytel’s 2025e net cash allows for flexibili...

Q3: Impressive profitability and guidance upgrade

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Well positioned

While EBITDA was broadly in line with expectations, the Q3 report gave early signs of improved operational reliability, which we believe will be key to narrowing the discount to underlying values (the stock is trading at 0.6x P/NAV). Recent contract awards (including a new 12+12-month contract announced with the results) have made the fleet fully booked until the 2025 summer season, and three of the four 2025 newbuild deliveries are now booked directly following yard delivery. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resulting in lower ‘peak volumes’ and demand being spread over a longer period. The rig count is said to...