Storytel Minor model adjustments
Ahead of Storytel’s Q2 results (due on 30 July) – which we expect to show the first positive net-profit quarter since 2016 – we have calibrated our 2024–2025e adj. EPS (by 2–0%), reflecting updated FX and a revenue mix shift in Non-Nordics. We do not consider these changes material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have lowered our target price to SEK80 (81).Q2e adj. EBITDA 8% above consensus. Despite the fierce competitive environment in the lower-price segment in Sweden, we are 8% above post-Q1 Visible Alpha consensus on Q2e adj. EBITDA, and remain 8–14% above Storytel’s 2024 targets on adj. EBITDA and OpFCF. While we believe investors still want to see a new CEO announcement (with current CEO Johannes Larcher set to leave this autumn) and a clear main shareholder to prompt a re-rating, we see a step-change in FCF generation at an undemanding valuation at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 7x, P/E of 17x and OpFCF yield of 10%.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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