DnB Markets - SYSTEMAIR AB (SYSR) Systemair (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Green shoots

Report

DnB Markets

Douglas Lindahl

EUR 96.14 For Business Accounts Only

Systemair (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Green shoots

Following the solid Q2 results, we have raised our adj. EBIT estimates by 2% on average for the next three years. Organic growth was stronger than we expected, and management was upbeat on demand ahead given recent order activity. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK90 (86).

11/12/2023 1 EN

Underlying

SYSTEMAIR AB

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SE0016609499 Nasdaq Nordic Stockholm Sweden

Provider

DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

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Analysts

Douglas Lindahl

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Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Closing in on margin target

Q2 2024/25 brought another strong adj. EBIT margin, and the CEO remains confident in overall market conditions. We have raised our 2024/25–2026/27e adj. EBIT by c8% on average, and our target price to SEK105 (85) dafter updating our valuation metrics. However, Systemair tends to see some performance volatility quarter to quarter (partly due to its project nature), and the stock is still trading above historical average multiples; with limited upside potential, we reiterate our HOLD.

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Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - On the right margin path

Systemair’s gross margin gains reinforce our confidence in profitability from here. However, our 2024/25–2026/27 adj. EBIT forecasts are largely unchanged post-Q1, with lower top-line estimates broadly offset by higher margin assumptions. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK85 target price, with the valuation looking fair, minimal differences between our estimates and consensus, and the market already pricing in expectations of improving market dynamics and expanding margins.

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Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Negative mix likely to continue

After a mixed Q4 (which was below consensus but above our forecast on adj. EBIT), we have raised our estimates as we are now slightly more positive on future margins. Given our updated estimates and recently expanded peer multiples, we have raised our target price to SEK85 (78), but reiterate our HOLD. We expect continued negative (YOY) margin trends in Q1 due to mix.

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We have increased our 2024e EPS by 26% on the announced gain of SEK0.4bn in Q4 following the deal with Balder to break up the Centur JV. Despite the Q4 transactional gain in Property Development (PD), we continue to see downside risk to consensus on bullish EPS expectations longer-term. We reiterate our HOLD, finding a better risk/reward in peers, but have raised our target price to SEK80 (76) on updated peer valuations.

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Systemair (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Green shoots

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Closing in on margin target

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - On the right margin path

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Negative mix likely to continue

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK80.00) - JV accounting gains

Namibia uncertainty with Shell write-down

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Two divestments for SEK5.8bn

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