DnB Markets - SYSTEMAIR AB (SYSR) Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK78.00) - HOLD on lacklustre outlook

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DnB Markets

Douglas Lindahl

EUR 96.14 For Business Accounts Only

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK78.00) - HOLD on lacklustre outlook

Q3 earnings were well below our estimate and consensus, and we have cut our 2023/24–2025/26e adj. EBIT by c15% on average, and in turn lowered our target price to SEK78 (90). Given the limited upside potential and our view of market conditions in Systemair’s most profitable regions remaining challenging and weighing on earnings, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

05/03/2024 1 EN

Underlying

SYSTEMAIR AB

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SE0016609499 Nasdaq Nordic Stockholm Sweden

Provider

DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

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Analysts

Douglas Lindahl

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DnB Markets

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Closing in on margin target

Q2 2024/25 brought another strong adj. EBIT margin, and the CEO remains confident in overall market conditions. We have raised our 2024/25–2026/27e adj. EBIT by c8% on average, and our target price to SEK105 (85) dafter updating our valuation metrics. However, Systemair tends to see some performance volatility quarter to quarter (partly due to its project nature), and the stock is still trading above historical average multiples; with limited upside potential, we reiterate our HOLD.

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December 4, 2024 December 4, 2024 1 EN

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Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - On the right margin path

Systemair’s gross margin gains reinforce our confidence in profitability from here. However, our 2024/25–2026/27 adj. EBIT forecasts are largely unchanged post-Q1, with lower top-line estimates broadly offset by higher margin assumptions. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK85 target price, with the valuation looking fair, minimal differences between our estimates and consensus, and the market already pricing in expectations of improving market dynamics and expanding margins.

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August 29, 2024 August 29, 2024 1 EN

DnB Markets

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Negative mix likely to continue

After a mixed Q4 (which was below consensus but above our forecast on adj. EBIT), we have raised our estimates as we are now slightly more positive on future margins. Given our updated estimates and recently expanded peer multiples, we have raised our target price to SEK85 (78), but reiterate our HOLD. We expect continued negative (YOY) margin trends in Q1 due to mix.

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Peab (Hold, TP: SEK80.00) - JV accounting gains

We have increased our 2024e EPS by 26% on the announced gain of SEK0.4bn in Q4 following the deal with Balder to break up the Centur JV. Despite the Q4 transactional gain in Property Development (PD), we continue to see downside risk to consensus on bullish EPS expectations longer-term. We reiterate our HOLD, finding a better risk/reward in peers, but have raised our target price to SEK80 (76) on updated peer valuations.

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Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK78.00) - HOLD on lacklustre outlook

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK105.00) - Closing in on margin target

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - On the right margin path

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Negative mix likely to continue

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK80.00) - JV accounting gains

Namibia uncertainty with Shell write-down

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Two divestments for SEK5.8bn

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