Trelleborg (Hold, TP: SEK395.00) - Sunnier skies await

Overall, Trelleborg’s Q1 was in line with our estimates and consensus, while we believe the outlook comment heading into Q2 might be on the overly cautious side. We have made limited (1% on average) estimate changes on adj. EBITA for 2024–2026e and reiterate our HOLD. We have raised our target price to SEK395 (380) and see limited upside potential for the stock.

Highlighting H2 improvement

Solid Q1 numbers, in line Q2 guidance. No underlying changes, but adding M&A means +2% on '24e EBITA. Maintain HOLD and TP at SEK 375.

No drama, limited ests revisions

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Soft Q1, with or without setbacks

The Q1 results were below our expectations, even after adjusting for the negatives on the group profit from the political strikes in Finland and the Red Sea conflict. On a positive note, the PCT price/mix was guided to hold up well, partly offsetting our revised lower sales expectations, while the Romanian factory appears to be ramping up on schedule. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9.0 (9.5), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c6% on average.

Lyko Group (Sell, TP: SEK95.00) - Stretched balance sheet

Following the Q1 report, we believe Lyko will not only have to make more substantial progress in balancing growth and cost control, but also consider new funding options more seriously. With financial expenses eating up earnings, its current debt position, and stretched balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA c4.6x), we have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target price to SEK95 (128).

Resurs Holding (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - Resur-recting the case

The market appears to be pricing in credit losses remaining high for many years, but we see the potential for declines starting in mid-2024, with early positive signs in March. We also find it likely that margins will be stable from here, which is not reflected in consensus. At a P/E of 3–4x for 2025e, we see good risk/reward. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–7%, our target price to SEK18 (15), and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD).