Vår Energi (Buy, TP: NOK37.00) - Balder timeline at risk
Q4 EBITDA was broadly in line with our forecast and consensus, with a slight FCF beat on lower than expected capex. Moreover, we found the 2024 guidance in line with expectations. The progress of its key developments remains in focus, with Balder X start-up delayed from Q3 to Q4e. We now assume no incremental production from Balder X in 2024 (assuming ramp-up in late Q4) but our 2024e production is still within the guided 280–300kboed. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK37 (36) in light of the NOK1/share accretion from the closing of the Neptune Energy transaction.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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